Obama State of the Union 2012 and Social Security

January 25, 2012

“As I told the Speaker this summer, I’m prepared to make more reforms that rein in the long term costs of Medicare and Medicaid, and strengthen Social Security, so long as those programs remain a guarantee of security for seniors.”  Obama is leaving the door open to cuts to Social Security.  Once again, those of us who defend Social Security will have to keep our guard up, even with a Democrat president.


Social Security Survives Elite Attempts to Weaken It in 2011

December 31, 2011

The Republican attempts in 2011 to weaken Social Security in the name of deficit reduction were to be expected; the mixed signals of the Democrats in terms of defending it were concerning.  What saved Social Security from cuts was mobilization by organizations such as Strengthen Social Security of the public which overwhelmingly supports the program in the face of backroom Washington attempts by elites to weaken it.

For an excellent summary of the political battle to defend Social Security during 2011, go to Scott Hochberg’s article at Strengthen Social Security.


Don’t Go After Military Pensions

December 27, 2011

By DARRELL DRIVER, JIN PAK and KYLE JETTE

New York Times

December 27, 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/opinion/military-pensions-are-essential.html?_r=1

Washington

AS the nation’s budget pressures prompt officials to scour the Defense Department for cuts, one tantalizing target is the military retirement system. The Pentagon has reportedly been considering replacing the guaranteed pension that, for more than a century, has been a fundamental compact between the United States and its soldiers, in favor of a market-based 401(k) approach. But this would be a grave mistake, a disincentive to future volunteers and a threat to national security.

Needless to say, there are critical differences between the civilian and military work forces. Soldiers who have risked their lives for our nation should not also have to risk their retirement savings in stocks. But there are many more mundane sacrifices required of career service members that also make it hard for them to build up the kind of wealth — whether in their houses, their careers or the careers of their spouses — that cushions civilian retirees from the whims of the market.

Service members are often required to move, for example, which hinders their ability to build home equity. Many have to put off purchasing homes, and those who do buy do not have the option of choosing not to move if their mortgages become underwater. For this reason, the housing crash of recent years has hit service families especially hard.

Frequent moves also make it hard for service members’ spouses to find work and progress in their own careers. This is most likely a primary reason that median household incomes for military families are lower than those of their civilian counterparts.

Most important, the unique skills people learn on the battlefield do not easily translate into private sector employment, and many military retirees struggle to find new work. While the officer who managed a military transportation hub might anticipate an equivalent job from a civilian firm, and while a young private who served one deployment could relatively easily return to school or an entry-level job, an infantry sergeant first class who has spent a decade or more on multiple deployments to the world’s most dangerous places would not find the same ready options.

For these individuals, there can be a significant financial cost to agreeing to remain in military service beyond the years when it would be easiest to make the transition to more marketable civilian jobs. But these are the people the military needs, and needs to retain.

The military pension helps compensate for their sacrifices. Soldiers and their families are more willing to put off other careers, and to accept frequent displacement, lower earnings and even the risk of being ordered back to active duty after beginning new careers, because of the promise of future compensation. The guaranteed pension is one of the biggest incentives keeping talented people in the military.

No one knows for sure how a shift to a 401(k) model would affect these families and their decisions to remain in military service. But we do know that there is a spike in retirements once soldiers complete the 20-year minimum to qualify for full pensions, and we can only assume that these people would retire far sooner without them. And it’s likely that many would not join up at all.

As policy makers continue their deliberations on military spending cuts — which are scheduled to begin again next month — they must keep the unique nature of military service in mind when they look to the costs and benefits of the retirement plan. And they should remember that no one imagined, back in the 1970s, that our all-volunteer force would last this long. Most believed that conscription would again be needed if the nation ever engaged in a significant conflict. The United States military has proved them wrong so far, but we should not underestimate the role the guaranteed pension has played in its resilience.

Darrell Driver, Jin Pak and Kyle Jette are lieutenant colonels in the United States Army.


How Payroll Tax Cut Affects Social Security’s Future

December 7, 2011

by David Welna

National Public Radio, December 7, 2011

President Obama put Congress on notice Tuesday in a speech in Osawatomie, Kan.

He said that unless a temporary payroll tax  cut is extended this month, 160 million Americans would see their taxes go up next year by an average of $1,000. But there’s concern on both sides of the  political aisle that the payroll tax holiday might be undermining the solvency  of Social Security.

Fact No. 1: Last year, for the first time  in its 75-year history, Social Security took in less money than it paid out.  Fact No. 2: This year, the first of the baby boomers reached retirement age and  began collecting Social Security benefits. Fact No. 3: The payroll tax holiday  that Congress approved a year ago reduced Social Security’s revenues this year  by $145 billion.

Obama showed no sign of being troubled by  those facts when he popped into the White House briefing room earlier this week  and called on Congress to extend the payroll tax cut for another year.

“It will help families pay their  bills, it will spur spending, it will spur hiring and it’s the right thing to  do,” Obama said.

Republicans on Capitol Hill might disagree.  Although they do not think other tax cuts should be paid for, they make an  exception when it comes to Social Security.

“Getting rid of the way we fund Social  Security through the payroll tax is a dangerous idea,” says Lamar  Alexander, the Senate’s No. 3 Republican. “Taking money from Social  Security funding is a long-term raid on solvency of Social Security.”

It’s not just Republicans raising red flags  about Social Security, either. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont Independent who  caucuses with Senate Democrats, says he agrees with Obama that middle class  families and the working poor need tax relief to weather tough economic times.

“My concern is diverting hundreds of  billions of dollars from the Social Security trust fund into that immediate tax  relief,” Sanders says. “So I would love to see tax relief, but done
in a different way.”

Charles Blahous, whom Obama appointed last  year to be one of the six trustees of Social Security and Medicare, thinks it’s  a far greater danger than most people anticipate. He too says the payroll tax  break might be harming Social Security’s long-term solvency.

“I mean, I’m a Republican and I’m a  conservative, and if you were to ask me at a first approximation, do I want  lower taxes or higher taxes, then obviously I want lower taxes,” Blahous
says. “The problem here is that I’m also a public Social Security trustee  and so I’m honor-bound to identify when this causes a change or a difficulty  for the Social Security program, which it does.”

That’s because Social Security has long been considered self-financing and thus politically immune from budget cuts.  But that could change, Blahous says, now that employees are no longer paying  their full share into Social Security due to the payroll tax holiday.

“This could be the beginning of the  end of the idea that this is an earned benefit [and] where benefits enjoy a  certain amount of political protection because of a notion that they have been paid for in the past by the beneficiaries,” he says.

There’s anxiety among Democrats as well  about the prospect of prolonging the payroll tax cut. Nancy Altman, co-director  of Social Security Works, a Washington-based advocacy group, says she’s been  alarmed to see a Democratic administration dipping into Social Security’s  revenue stream to stimulate the economy.

“Democrats were the ones that created  Social Security and the ones that were the strongest champions over its 76  years,” Altman says. “So to have a Democratic president proposing to
undo the dedicated revenue … it’s a fundamental change that supporters of the  program, I think, should oppose.”

Altman worries the payroll tax cut has  become so popular it will be hard to end it, and that’s one reason why she  opposed it in the first place.

“Many of us at the time said that it’s  no way this is just going to last one year. And sure enough, we’re back now  talking about expanding it,” she says.

Some lawmakers do say the tax break is  worrisome, including Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.

“I think one more year should be about  the limit,” Whitehouse says, “because of the nature of Social  Security.”

A program that, until now, has always paid  its way.

 


Oppose Social Security Tax Cut

December 2, 2011

by Steve Max

www.portside.org December 1, 2011

Yesterday I received an e-mail from MoveOn summoning me to a demonstration in support of the Obama Administration’s attempt to fundamentally restructure
Social Security and shift half of its funding into the congressional budget processes. Of course MoveOn never mentioned Social Security.  They are deceiving their members by saying
only that they support a “small but useful tax cut.”

I am sure that you too are being asked to join the campaign to restructure Social Security and I urge you not to do so. The argument that this Social Security payroll tax cut needs to be
passed as a stimulus measure is simply fraudulent. The same amount of stimulus can easily be created, as it has been in the past, by cutting the income tax for middle income people, and by making a payment similar to the earned income tax credit to those with lower incomes.

Instead of directly cutting the income tax, the Administration proposes to both extend and increase the Social Security payroll tax cut and repay the money to Social Security out of general revenue with new money from a 3.25% tax on incomes over one million dollars.

In a phone call yesterday with staff at Senator Schumer’s office, Daniele and I were told that the Democrats are taking this course because they might get Republican support
for restructuring Social Security but not for cutting the income tax. Well of course they might. The Republicans sense that this is their chance to change Social Security from the self-funding independent program that FDR set up, to one that can be largely controlled through the budget process by a majority of either house. That is assuming the Democrats will continue in the belief that allowing this tax cut to sunset is actually a tax increase, and will want to keep it on the books for years to come.

This morning it became clear that the President’s shortsighted opportunism has led the Democrats into yet another Republican trap. The Republicans have introduced
their own bill to extend the Social Security revenue cut at its present level for another year but to pay for it by freezing federal employee salaries and reducing the federal
work force by 10%. By promoting a smaller cut in Social Security revenue than the Democrats advocate, the Republicans can now masquerade as defenders of Social
Security, while still supporting a middle class tax cut and shrinking government. Pretty smart! To continue their stimulus charade, the Democrats will have to make the type
of compromise of which the Administration has been so fond.

Let us all demand that Obama and Congress end this dangerous game.

See also the posting by Social Security Trustee Charles Blahous explaining why this proposal is a bad idea.


Social Security Payroll Tax Cut – A Temporary Stimulus with Permanent Damage

December 2, 2011

by  Charles A. Blahous

FoxNews.com

Published September 23, 2011

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/09/23/social-security-payroll-tax-cut-temporary-stimulus-with-permanent-damage/

As a former colleague of mine has astutely observed, sometimes the most consequential policy mistakes occur because everyone is looking the other way. The President’s
latest “jobs” proposal to extend, and expand, cuts in the Social Security payroll tax is a good example. While nearly everyone has focused on the debatable efficacy of temporary
payroll tax relief as a stimulus measure, few seem to have noticed the severe problems it could create for Social Security itself.

Specifically, the proposal would accelerate a process begun last December: transforming Social Security from what it long has been – a benefit earned by worker contributions -
into an income tax based system more akin to welfare.

As a Social Security Trustee, I believe it is critical both lawmakers and the public have a greater understanding of this effect before the policy is advanced further.

The payroll tax is Social Security’s lifeblood. If it continues to be significantly cut, then only one of two things can happen:  Social Security’s insolvency is accelerated, or;
Social Security must be financed by general (read: income tax) revenues.

Either choice undercuts Social Security’s future ability to operate as it has in the past. So far, the Administration has quietly made choice #2: to convert Social Security into a general revenue-financed program.

The current payroll tax cut, enacted last December, was accompanied by a provision to funnel roughly $105 billion in general revenues into the Social Security Trust Funds. This
year’s “American Jobs Act” aims to cut payroll taxes by a further $240 billion next year alone. The proposed bill would also transfer an offsetting $240 billion in general
revenues into the program to make up for the uncollected taxes. In total, these proposals would make $345 billion of general revenue (income tax) commitments just over 2011-12
to support Social Security benefit payments.

This is not a small change; it would significantly alter the way Social Security is financed.

Consider this: in 2005, President Bush proposed that workers be permitted to invest part of their Social Security contributions in personal accounts. The Congressional Budget
Office then projected that this would result in roughly $323 billion in payroll tax revenues being redirected from the trust funds to personal accounts over the next decade;
critics decried as ruinous what was termed the “transition cost” of personal accounts.

But just two years of the payroll tax cuts proposed by the Obama Administration would shift more payroll tax revenue away from the trust funds than CBO found President Bush’s
proposal would over ten. Even more important, unlike President Bush’s proposal, none of this payroll tax cut would be saved to finance future Social Security benefit payments. The revenue would be “replaced” by new debt issued from the general government accounts.

This proposal should be provoking vigorous opposition from both ends of the political spectrum.

Progressives should oppose it because cutting the payroll tax directly undermines our ability to finance benefits (this is why 61 House Democrats wrote the President on July
21 to express firm opposition to a further payroll tax cut extension).

It also is incompatible with the progressive vision for Social Security’s future. Many progressives argue that the solution to Social Security’s shortfall is to raise taxes by
increasing the wage base subject to the payroll tax . But the case that Social Security might be rescued with significant future tax increases is fatally undermined if
elected officials conclude that the current payroll tax already is too high to sustain during a recession.

For conservatives, the primary problem isn’t cutting payroll taxes, it’s issuing general revenue transfers to the Social Security Trust Funds. Essentially, the proposal would
require that income taxes (rather than payroll taxes) must be raised in the future to redeem Social Security Trust Fund debt and to pay benefits. This would convert Social Security
into a program that requires higher income taxes to fund. It also would convert Social Security into something more like welfare, for which the funding is provided – not by
contributions from all covered workers – but preferentially from those subject to the income tax.

Choking off Social Security’s tax revenue and issuing debt in its place is a dangerously short-sighted policy that would swap, at best, a fleeting gain for potentially
devastating long-term consequences. At the very least, policymakers need to fully understand the stakes, and then ask themselves – and the public – if it’s a trade-off
they’re willing to make.

This is a condensed version of an article by Dr. Blahous previously published by e21. Please click here to view the full article.

http://www.economics21.org/commentary/jobs-bill-pretending-fund-social-security

[Charles Blahous, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, is one of two public trustees for Social Security and Medicare.]


Security Plus Annuities – A Bad Idea

July 18, 2011

The Aspen Institute recommends establishing “Security Plus Annuities” to supplement Social Security benefits, an idea endorsed by Richard H. Thaler, a University of Chicago economics professor with ties to the financial services industry, in the New York Times (“Getting the Most Out of Social Security,” July 16, 2011).

The idea is that individuals would be able to top off their benefits by purchasing with 401(k) or other funds supplemental annuities from Social Security. 

If the Aspen Institute had stopped there, it would have been a good idea.  Social Security could sell annuities to the public at a much lower price than are the life insurance companies that dominate the commercial market.  Purchasers could be guaranteed the same pay-out rate as the rest of their benefits.

But the Aspen Institute didn’t stop there.  It recommended that “the federal government pre-select a private market annuity provider or providers (depending on the volume of purchases) to underwrite Security Plus Annuities on a group basis.”  The federal government would  provide “record-keeping, marketing, distribution and other administrative services, keeping Security Plus Annuities low-cost and a good value.”  Pay-out rates would vary according to interest rates in the economy as a whole.

In other words, the federal government would provide the work and prestige of Social Security to steer customers to private providers who would reap substantial profits.

Such a plan might have marginal advantages for retirees over the commercial annuities that are available now, but they would be far less than if Social Security issued as well as administered the annuities.  It would be similar to having Medicare collect taxes and then give them to a private medical insurance corporation to provide the insurance.  As with the Security Plus plan, it would add a layer of unnecessary private profiteering that would drive up costs to participants.     

James W. Russell


Why 401(k)s Failed

July 5, 2011

As Boomers are preparing to retire, the news is full of stories about how their 401(k) plans are coming up short.  Most of the stories imply that it’s the Boomers own fault for not saving enough.  That explanation, though, grossly distorts the cause of the growing retirement crisis in the United States that was fueled by the wholesale conversion of tradition pensions to 401(k) stock market investment schemes beginning in 1981.

To understand why 401(k) plans are coming up short, it is necessary to understand how they are supposed to work. 

The basic idea is that participants will individually save for retirement through private accounts that are invested in stocks and bonds.  The accumulations from those accounts during working years are supposed to grow enough to finance living expenses during retirement years. 

Most people understand that much.  But that is only half the story. The other half is what participants are supposed to do with their accumulated savings once they retire.  There are many possibilities, but the most recommended according to the original theory of the 401(k) approach is to use the accumulated savings to purchase life annuities, which are sold mainly by life insurance companies.  In return for surrendering their 401(k) savings, annuity purchasers receive back a percentage of the purchase amount each month or other period of time for the rest of their lives.   

Life annuities are comparable to traditional pension payments since both guarantee predictable income until death, thereby sparing recipients the risk of outliving their source of income.

The ability of a 401(k) plan to provide adequate retirement security depends, it follows, on the size of the retirement savings accumulated during the working years and the payout rates of annuities at the time of retirement.   

The size of accumulated savings, in turn, depends on how much was invested in the accounts and how those investments fared in the stock market.  An account with little invested in it obviously is not going to pay off with handsome returns for retirement. 

Most people with 401(k) accounts, it is true, do not put enough in them to ensure retirement security.  The main reason, though, for them coming up short is not because of a lack of a savings ethic on their part.  It is because the savings necessary to ensure retirement security under the 401(k) approach is beyond the ability of anyone with ordinary incomes and expenses, including home mortgages and children’s college expenses.

The stock market is the other factor that affects the size of the accumulations in 401(k)s.  Since 1981 when they began, the stock market has risen greatly, leaving participants with the illusion that those rising values were ensuring retirement security. .

But as those stock market values were rising, annuity payout rates were falling.  In 1986 a life annuity purchased for $100,000 yielded a monthly retirement income of $977 for men and $931 for women—annuity companies discriminate against women by paying them lower rates to compensate for them living longer.  In 2010, an annuity for that same cost yielded only $631 for men and $531 for women–35 percent less.

Average Monthly Payouts for $100,000 Annuity Bought at Age 65

Year                Male               Female

__________________________________________

1986               $977               $931

1990               $958               $865

1995               $808               $718

2000               $759               $693

2005               $647               $596

2010               $631               $591

__________________________________________ 

Source:  Calculated from www.annuityshopper.com

401(k)s thus failed to deliver retirement security not so much because of the improvidence of Boomers, but because even if they saved a lot, the value of those savings in terms of future retirement income were continually falling due to the decreasing payout rates of annuities.  Those falling payout rates easily outpaced rising stock market values.  No one should be under the illusion that low annuity payout rates are temporary.  As the above table indicates, they have been in steady decline since 1986.    

Thirty years after its inception, it is clear that the 401(k) approach has failed working people by not delivering predictable or adequate retirement income. At the same time it has been an enormous success for the financial services industry that has siphoned off the accounts a bonanza of commissions, management fees, and profits.  Therein lies the reason why these powerful financial interests will make sure that they continue to be able to control the collective retirement savings of working people.  

James W. Russell


“Get Radical: Raise, Don’t Save, Social Security” by Thomas Geoghegan—New York Times op-ed article.

June 21, 2011

Thomas Geohegan’s “Get Radical: Raise, Don’t Save, Social Security” (New York Times, June 19, 2011) eloquently makes the argument that Social Security revenues and benefits both need to be raised, especially since 401(k)s have failed to provide sufficient retirement income.


Guest Post: Defined-Contribution Plan v. Defined-Benefit Plan by Glen Brown

June 12, 2011

 With a few exceptions, Defined-Contribution Plans were not initially created as retirement vehicles but rather as supplementary savings accounts
 With a Defined-Contribution Plan (401k, 403b, 457), only your contributions are defined
 A Defined-Contribution Plan shifts all the responsibilities and all the risk from the employer to the employee; thus, your benefit is not guaranteed
 Your benefit is based upon investment earnings
 A Defined-Contribution Plan does not have the “pooled investments, professional money managers, and shared administrative costs” that a Defined-Benefit Plan provides
 Your benefit ends when your account is exhausted
 There are no survivor or disability guarantees
 This plan does allow for portable assets
 Changeover costs to this plan would be significant
 Investment fees are paid by member
 On-going costs would be higher: in 2006, the expense ratio was 1.29%, 4.3x’s higher than a Defined-Benefit Plan; in 2004, the median cost was 1.4%, 4.7x’s higher than a Defined-Benefit Plan
 The State of Illinois will not “save money.” Most of the State’s obligation to TRS is for contributions not paid during the past several decades; therefore, the deferred cost of underfunding cannot be eliminated by switching to a Defined-Contribution Plan
 Shifting to a Defined-Contribution Plan can raise annual costs by making it more difficult for Illinois to pay down existing liabilities. The plan will include fewer employees and fewer contributions going forward
 Even with Defined-Con¬tribution Plan option, States and localities are still left to deal with past underfunding
 “There is a $6.6 trillion deficit between what 401k account holders should have and what they actually have.”

 Defined-Pension Plans are more certain
 You cannot outlive the benefit
 You are not affected by Market volatility
 Defined-Benefit Plan’s assets are held in trust and managed by professional investors
 Survivor and disability benefits are part of this plan
 This plan encourages a long-term career and stable workforce
 Since you do not or can collect Social Security, it is your retirement guarantee
 This plan is the best choice for middle-class retirement
 Teachers with a Defined-Benefit Plan are more likely to be self-sufficient and less likely to need public assistance
 Because teachers understand the value of such a plan, they are willing to give up higher wages
 TRS performance is well-diversified; it is in top ¼ of all public funds for the last 10 years
 Since 1982, the average rate of return has been 9.83 percent
 The costs for this plan are not excessive or expensive: 0.3% of total assets, and these costs are paid for by TRS.

Sources: The Teachers’ Retirement System, the Illinois Federation of Teachers, the National Institute on Retirement Security, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems, and Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

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